Beware - U.S. Receives a Margin Call

The U.S. is at the receiving end of a massive margin call: Across the economy, wary lenders are demanding that borrowers put up more collateral or sell assets to reduce debts.

The unfolding financial crisis -- one that began with bad bets on securities backed by subprime mortgages, then sparked a tightening of credit between big banks -- appears to be broadening further. For years, the U.S. economy has been borrowing from cash-rich lenders from Asia to the Middle East. American firms and households have enjoyed readily available credit at easy terms, even for risky bets. No longer.

Recent days' cascade of bad news, culminating in yesterday's bailout of Bear Stearns Cos., is accelerating the erosion of trust in the longevity of some brand-name U.S. financial institutions. The growing crisis of confidence now extends to the credit-worthiness of borrowers across the spectrum -- touching American homeowners, who are seeing the value of their bedrock asset decline, and raising questions about the capacity of the Federal Reserve and U.S. government to rapidly repair the problems.

Global investors are pulling money from the U.S., steepening the decline of the U.S. dollar and sending it below 100 yen for the first time in a dozen years. Against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, the dollar has fallen 14.3% over the past year, according to the Federal Reserve. Yesterday it hit another record low against the euro, falling 2.1% this week to close at 1.567 dollars per euro.

There are other symptoms of declining confidence. Gold, the ultimate inflation hedge, is flirting with $1,000 an ounce. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., predicted Thursday that large financial institutions still need to write down $135 billion in subprime-related securities, on top of $150 billion in previous write-downs. Ordinary Americans are worried: Only 20% think the country is generally headed in the right direction, nearly as low as at any time in the Bush presidency, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The loss of confidence is now spreading beyond the biggest banks, with their well-publicized losses on subprime and other risky assets, to regional and small banks. In the fourth quarter, U.S. banks reported their smallest net income -- a total of $5.8 billion -- in 16 years, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

This couldn't come at a worse time for U.S. homeowners. American household debt has more than doubled in a decade to $13.8 trillion at the end of 2007 from $6.4 trillion in 1999, the vast majority of it in mortgages and home equity lines, according to Fed data. But the value of U.S. householders' biggest asset -- their homes -- is now falling.

While there is continued debate about how to treat the current disease, there is a consensus emerging on the causes. "Soaring delinquencies on U.S. subprime mortgages were the primary trigger," the heads of the Treasury, Federal Reserve and Securities and Exchange Commission said in a lessons-learned report. "However, that initial shock both uncovered and exacerbated other weaknesses in the global financial system."

The response of the Republican White House, Democratic Congress and Federal Reserve have been substantial. President Bush and Congress, with remarkable speed, agreed to a $160 billion fiscal-stimulus package that will put money in consumers' wallets soon. The Fed already has cut interest rates by 1 1/4 percentage points this year, and markets anticipate another 3/4 point cut on Tuesday. The Fed has moved to buy $400 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities for its $800 billion total securities portfolio in an effort to jolt that crucial market back to life and prevent rising mortgage rates from further depressing the U.S. housing market.

Getting them feeling the pinch.... all about open market

A new report by the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) warns against a transfer of wealth of historical proportions from the world’s oil consuming nations to OPEC as a result of the current spike in oil prices. According to the report’s author, executive director of IAGS Dr. Gal Luft, this transfer of wealth is already causing “a structural shift in the world economy, causing oil importers economic dislocations such as swollen trade deficits, job loss, sluggish economic growth, inflation and, if prices continue to rise, inevitable recessions.”

At $100 a barrel OPEC’s market capitalization stands on roughly $92 trillion, almost half of the world’s total financial assets and nearly twice the market capitalization of all the companies traded in the world’s 27 top stock markets. According to Luft, such monumental wealth allows OPEC countries unprecedented buying power.

As an illustration, at current oil prices it would take OPEC just six days to buy GM and three years to buy a 20 percent voting block in every S&P 500 company.

Luft claims that it would be hard to see how such buying power would not upset the West’s economic and political sovereignty. At the current rate of investment, foreign governments are likely to be more willing to translate their wealth into power dictating business practices, vetoing deals, appointing officers sympathetic to their governments, dismissing those who are critical of them and imposing Sharia laws on Western corporations.

And the counter measures is

The report calls for increased vigilance and demands reciprocity in U.S. relations with OPEC members. Many of the oil countries investing in the West are known for their egregious violations of open investments and free trade. “The least we can do is demand that foreigners treat us as we treat them,” Luft wrote. Luft also calls for an urgent effort to reduce global dependence on petroleum as a way to protect the West’s economic sovereignty. “For America, the perpetuation of the petroleum standard promises a metastasizing sovereignty loss, economic and political decline and eventually enslavement to OPEC and its whims,” Luft said, “Only by destroying the strategic value of oil can we stop the bleeding of our economy.”

The full report can be downloaded here.